Episode #11: Predicting Toy Market Trends After Coronavirus
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Let's be honest, the market is changing.
We're in the midst of a serious shift in the way we live, and life and business as we know it is changing drastically each and every day.
Having the ability and know-how to pivot and adjust your business to fit market needs is paramount in assuring long term success.
So for this episode, The Toy Coach dives into a detailed conversation exploring how the current coronavirus pandemic has and will continue to affect the toy industry. What categories will thrive? What categories will fail? Azhelle introduces her process for analyzing and predicting market trends. The Toy Coach walks you, step-by-step, through her own analysis of the market shift caused by the current pandemic.
Learn how to create your own Market Shift Mind Map inside this insightful episode.
Ready to learn more? Pop in your earbuds and listen in!
LEARN HOW TO CREATE A MARKET SHIFT MIND MAP
A mind map is a type of diagram that allows you to visually organize information.
In episode 11 of MITTI, Azhelle teaches you how to create a specific type of mind map, she calls the Market Shift Mind Map.
Utilizing the four major branches that Azhelle details in this episode, you will be guided to identifying and predicting future market trends of your own. To start you have to know what your cause of change is, in this episode, we focus on the coronavirus epidemic. And from there you need to pull out 4 branches and answer 4 questions.
Download the COVID-19 Market Shift Mind Map below to follow along.
FREE DOWNLOAD
COVID-19 Market Shift Mind Map
Branch #1 What Are The Immediate Effects?
The question this branch will answer is “What’s currently on the rise during the epidemic? What are current social or economic trends that are on the rise due to its occurrence?”
Branch #2 What Will Increase In Value?
The question that this branch will answer is, “What is or will become more important or valuable to people as a result of this epidemic? You could also think about what will they miss or feel they need to post this event?”
Branch #3 What Will Decrease In Value?
The question posed for this branch will be “What will become less important to people as a result of this epidemic? Or what will they no longer value?”
Branch #4 Who are the Heroes?
Who will be known as the heroes or leaders that carried the country or world through this time?
Once you understand each of those major branches, you have the foundation of your Market Shift Mind Map.
Now, to answer these questions, you’ll analyze the cause of change and consider how it may affect each of those four branches. Then, you’ll pull out sub-branches from each of those four major branches that answer the questions inside of them.
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This episode is brought to you by thetoycoach.com
FREE DOWNLOAD COVID-19 Market Shift Mind Map.
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Azhelle (00:00): Before we start today's episode. I wanted to take a moment and let you know that today we will address the effects of COVID 19 I know it's a sensitive topic, but I want you to know that we here at making it in the toy industry are with you in a bit. We will be discussing the pandemic and how it's affecting the toy and games industry, but please know that we are well aware that the effects of this pandemic are much greater and much more tragic then just how an industry trends and sales are affected, but in light of the situation, we encourage our listeners to continue to be strong, forceful, and innovative and that's the goal of today's episode. To encourage that kind of perseverance. We want to wish everyone the best and please know that our hearts are with you. All right, let's get started. Azhelle (00:55): You are listening to making it in the toy industry episode number 11 Intro/Outro + Jingle (01:02): Welcome to making it in the toy industry podcast for inventors and entrepreneurs like you and now your host Azhelle Wade.Azhelle (01:11): Hey there, toy people Azhelle Wade here and welcome back to another episode of making it in the toy industry. This is a weekly podcast brought to you by the toy coach.com for today's episode, we are going to analyze and predict the effects on the toy and game industry due to the Coronavirus pandemic. I want to do this episode because while some of us are fighting this fight on the front lines at hospitals and some of us are suffering the fallout with lost wages, there are others that are just sitting in this odd in between where we are working from home and proceeding with work and life as normal as possible until our leaders tell us otherwise. So while we may not have the means to make a massive impact by manufacturing thousands of masks or building respirators by the hundreds, we can do this. Azhelle (02:08): We can contribute to the simple trucking along of the economy by keeping our heads high and our minds future-focused. So with this in mind, I've been thinking about the future a lot and in times of major change, be it by crisis or any technological advance, people's priorities and values shift. Now when people's values change, what else changes? That's what we're going to dive into today. So let's get started. Today I'm going to introduce you to a process that I created to analyze and predict market shifts that come during major world events and other social economic changes that might come about with technological advances. Now this process was built off of a type of chart called Mind Maps and mind maps are great visual tools to help you analyze and problem solve challenging situations. So I've named my process as the market shift mind map and in the market shift mind map, there are four major questions that you need to ask yourself in order to create one.Azhelle (03:19): And if done well, this form of analysis will help you predict the direction of consumer values and ultimately toy trends. After a major marketplace shift, you can use a market shift mind map whenever the landscape of a consumer based industry changes. This could be a generational change as one generation ages out of your target market and another ages in or it could be a major economic and social change like the COVID 19 pandemic that we're dealing with today. So I'm going to walk you through the market shift mind map that I created for COVID 19 and share with you my analysis and predictions for the toy and game market. Now, there will be a lot of information here, so I thought it would be really helpful if I gave you guys a visual tool to follow along with or just referenced later. So if you head over to the toy coach.com forward slash podcast forward slash 11 you can grab a PDF that's going to be a visual guide to everything we'll talk about today. Azhelle (04:29): You're definitely to want to grab that freebie. It's a game changer. Now I go way more into detail about how to implement this process to create your own market shift mind map inside of my toy creators Academy digital course. So if you'd like to learn more about that course and when it becomes available, head over to toy creators, academy.com to learn more. Now as always, I will put all links to all of these wonderful bonuses in the show notes so you don't have to worry about that. Okay, so that's enough talk. Let's get started. Let's dive in to creating our market shift mind map around the COVID 19 pandemic. Now to start our market shift mind map to identify and predict the changes to come in the coming months and even years, you'll need to start with a blank sheet of paper, no lines work best position it horizontally and right COVID 19 market shift mind map at the center of the page because this is the current pandemic that the world is dealing with. Azhelle (05:37): But I do want to point out that this could be swapped for any major cause of change in your industry. It could be the introduction of the internet, the rise of social media, the fall of retail, et cetera. But for today's episode, the center of our mind map is going to be COVID 19 now from circle COVID 19 and create four branches coming from it. Each of these branches is going to answer four major questions to help define the future trajectory of consumer values. I like to use a different color pen for each branch because our market shift mind map is going to get pretty full. So the colors are going to really help you differentiate each section. All right, so let's start with our first branch and at the end of it I want you to write immediate effects and circle that. The question this branch will answer is this, what's currently on the rise during the pandemic, what our current social or economic trends that are on the rise due to the occurrence of COVID 19 okay, let's move onward to branch number two. Azhelle (06:45): Now the question that this branch is going to answer is what is or will become more important or valuable to people as a result of this epidemic? You could also think about what will they miss or feel they need after this event. So at the end of this branch, you're going to write what will increase in value and circle that. Okay. Now next, let's look at branch number three. The question posed for this branch will be what will become less important to people as a result of this epidemic? Or what will they no longer value? At the end of this branch, you're going to write what will decrease in value and circle that. Now finally, you'll finish the main branches of this market place shift mind map with the fourth branch, which will answer question number four who will be known as the heroes or leaders of this time. Azhelle (07:43): So at the end of this branch, you'll simply write the word heroes and circle that. Okay, great. Now you have the foundation for your market shift mind map, and now to answer these questions, you're going to analyze the current pandemic and consider how it may affect each of those four branches. Now again, those branches are one immediate effects to increasing in value, three, decreasing in value and for heroes. Now the next step is to draw sub branches from each of these four main branches. To answer the questions inside of them, and this is where the true analysis comes in. This is where your predictions come in, but I've already done the work here and I'm just going to share with you my findings and analysis and predictions for each of these four categories. Now I want to remind you before you get into drawing up a huge mind map of your own, I do have this available as a free download, so head over to the toy coach.com forward slash podcast forward slash 11 to grab your free mind map freebie, and then you can just easily follow along with this episode. Azhelle (08:55): Okay, first up, let's look at our first branch and that is immediate effects. So let's look at branch number one and just talk about what's currently on the rise in and around our industry and the surrounding industries due to COVID 19 now I've pulled out five immediate effects and the trends that they created due to in 19 number one we've seen an increased sale of essential goods. Now as the threat of COVID 19 loomed over our nation, people essentially freaked out. They rushed to grocery stores for food and toilet paper and preparation for an economic shutdown. As the threat has progressed and States have shut down, most businesses, the meaning of essential goods has expanded to include not only grocery stores and pharmacies for food and medicine, but also health food shops, supplying vitamins, big box stores like target and Walmart, and even liquor stores. Azhelle (09:55): That means that even during a statewide lockdown, they're still a retail outlet for toy and game products. Okay. Number two, the second branch underneath immediate effects, increased online presence of toy retailers. Now, when possible, retailers have made the switch to either sell their toys online or increase their social media activities. Wonder Works toys. A small toy store chain in South Carolina launched an online store where you can virtually walk through the retail space, click around and experience the toys for sale with videos and with just a few more clicks. Add them to your cart for immediate purchase. Talk about necessity being the mother of invention. Now, the third immediate effect of COVID 19 was an increase in sales of board games, puzzles, and arts and crafts. Now with school closures caused by the Coronavirus, parents started stocking up on toys, games, and educational tools to keep their kids busy at home. Azhelle (11:00): According to a Fox business report, since Amazon has been experiencing delivery delays, customers have directly reached out to neighborhood toy stores to fulfill their toy needs, getting one day or same day delivery in many cases. Additionally, children are getting tired of their devices. Can you believe it? No, that's right. Parents are actually looking for new ways to entertain their children outside of apps and devices and that's pushing them back towards traditional play. The fourth immediate effect of COVID 19 is a rise in homeschooling articles, blogs, support groups, and how tos, many parents have had to take on the role of being teachers as schools closed down due to the virus. This led to a surge of articles and just like blog post release, help parents plan daily activities and offer tips and guidance on how to best teacher little ones and keep them focused when receiving home based education. Azhelle (12:05): And last but certainly not least, we've seen a loss in jobs and income nationwide. So what that means essentially is, yes, this may trigger another recession. But what we do know to be true is that parents will always go without to provide joy for their children. Okay, so now we've named all of the sub branches. Next step is to pick out what we can predict from the sub ranches. What did we learn from the immediate effects that we identified in branch one and what can we predict from it? Well first we talked about the buying of essential goods that grocery stores and big box stores are still available, sales outlets for toy companies. And from this we can predict or we can surmise that there will be an increase in sales as consumers purchase food and toys in bulk to prepare to stay at home. Azhelle (13:02): But also we can predict that if grocery stores and big box chains manage to offer a fulfilling experience, they could retain these customers even after the pandemic and see a continual uplift in sales. It's also a great opportunity for companies with an already strong social media following to advertise their family fun toy products, availability at essential stores to further motivate sales. We also identified the importance of an online presence for toy retailers. This epidemic brought focus to online marketplaces other than Amazon in a positive light. Retailers like WonderWorks toys are setting the bar for what customers will expect when brick and mortar stores offer virtual shopping. In the future, we can predict an increased need in demonstrated video support for our toys and games. We can also predict the need for packages and case packs designed for storage and easy shipping. Now we also saw an increase in sales and of board games and art and crafts and puzzles. Azhelle (14:13): Now, traditional toys like board games, puzzles and arts and crafts have always been a recession proof category. The components to make these kits are so affordable, they can be produced quickly and they can retail for a very low price point and that's really accessible during times of economic uncertainty like these paper-based products like puzzles and board games, even have the added bonus of being able to be manufactured in either the U S or Canada. With marketplaces like Amazon experiencing a delay in shipping products. The closer a product is manufactured to the country that it will sold in the higher likelihood the company will be able to keep the product in stock and ship it either direct to consumers or to retailers for sale. So we can predict an increase in sales of craft and board game companies that sell either online or in big box retailers and grocery stores. Azhelle (15:11): We also identified a rise in homeschool articles and how to blog posts. This opens a unique opportunity for toy companies to create content that will help solve the biggest problems parents have today. How do they engage, educate and entertain their kids? Forming a relationship with your consumers is key in today's social media age and now is the time that toy companies could get a head start developing those relationships. So we can definitely predict that we're going to see much more kid focused educational content just popping up on our online streaming platforms and potentially with ties to product that is available for online purchase. And finally, and certainly not least, we know there's an increase in unemployment. So what we can predict from that is that toy dollars will shift to value chains and lower price point items. So if you're developing a line of toy product, it would be wise to consider suspending the development of the higher price point items and really focus on building out lower price point offerings. Azhelle (16:22): Okay, so all of that, all of those immediate effects that was all about branch one that was all just trying to understand, wrap our heads around and predict small immediate changes that are going to happen because of the current pandemic. COVID 19 so now we're going to take a look at branch two. Now in branch two we're going to talk about what is going to become more important to people as the crisis evolves and eventually resolves. Now answering a few specific questions are going to give us the sub branches and we won't really need to dive in deeper to the sub branches like we did in branch one because what we come up with here are immediately going to be our predictions to figure out what those sub branches are. You're going to ask yourself three major questions. These are the questions that I went through to pull out the sub branches. Azhelle (17:14): We're going to talk about once the spread of the virus is contained and once we all return to a new normal, whatever that is, and a vaccine or a treatment is developed, what will increase in value to the consumers? Number two, how will their values change? And number three, how can that influence their buying habits? Okay, so now you're looking at your mind map. You have COVID 19 in the center and your second branch says what will increase in value from that, I have five sub branches. The first one is health and hygiene. As a threat of COVID 19 dissipates and quarantines are lifted little by little. It's safe to predict that parents will continue to look for ways to promote positive hygiene practices to their children. We can presume that they will be drawn to hygiene focused toys, books, and games. Now, an example of a toy like this might be a musical toothbrush that encourages kids to brush longer with sound. Azhelle (18:15): So inventors might need to consider looking at ways to combine play with hygiene by writing a book, creating a plush toy or a game that teaches lessons in cleanliness. And our second branch off of what will increase in value is social distancing. Social distancing has become a positive concept because both friends and extended family and leaders are telling us that staying apart is the fastest way that we can get back to being together. So because of the increasing importance of social distancing or physical distancing ways to connect with friends and family, virtually has been on the rise. So it's safe to say that for our industry, online games or board games or card games that can be adapted to an online environment will soar. But there have also been a lot of conversations around whether social distancing is truly a trend or if it might become a longterm change in the way we live our lives. Azhelle (19:20): So if the COVID 19 epidemic causes the practice of social distancing to evolve into this new mainstream way of life, we could predict that with the increasing importance and use of video calls that toys and games will become inspired by social distancing and might start integrating things like video calls and other virtual aspects into their play patterns. Now our third branch from what will increase in value is outdoor play after having been stuck at home for an extended period of time. As soon as we are all told we can go outside, I think it's safe to predict that outdoor toys are going to see a huge lift, especially those that have kids interacting with one another as a form of play. Now, normally outdoor toys are most popular in summer and springtime, but it's safe to predict that regardless of the season in which quarantine ends, outdoor toys will fly off the shelves. Azhelle (20:21): I think this would be a great opportunity for inventors to push autumn and winter themed outdoor toys or games that might normally be met with resistance by toy companies and buyers. We could also predict that once the stay at home mandate lifts international travel restrictions will not, at least not at first, which means that children and parents will be focusing on exploring their neighborhoods, their backyards. Thus we could predict that nature kits might also be on the rise. Now our fourth branch off of what will increase in value is STEM toys and science books. Since this epidemic is biological, it's safe to predict that science kits are going to be on the rise. We could assume that kids parents will be drawn to educational science kits. Thus items like toy microscopes could see an increase in popularity. We're seeing a rise in books to explain hygiene to kids already, so it's safe to assume that kids will grow up wanting to understand what happened during this epidemic and why it happened. Azhelle (21:32): So maybe as they age, their own interest will increase as a whole. In science kits and things like microscopes, our fifth and final branch from what will increase in value is party supplies. So with so many birthdays and events canceled due to quarantines rolling out state to state, it's really safe to predict that. At the end of the pandemic we will see a flood of belated birthday celebrations. We'll see birthdays and anniversaries, weddings, bridal showers. I mean the list is going to go on and on, but once this epidemic passes, it's easy to predict an influx of sales in the party category. Okay, now let's look at our third major branch and that is what will decrease in value. And let's talk about what's going to become less important to people as this crisis evolves and eventually resolves. So there are a few major questions that you need to focus on and ask herself to define what the sub branches are. Azhelle (22:37): Again, these sub branches are pretty much going to be our predictions for what is going to decrease in value after the pandemic passes. So I have three top questions. Number one, once the spread of the virus is contained and a new normal is established, when businesses reopen and life resumed, what will consumers no longer like? Number two, what will they stay away from? In the toy aisle and number three, how could that influence their buying? Okay, so I've determined five predictions of what will decrease in value to consumers as a result of this crisis. Number one, the first branch from what will decrease in value messy play. One thing we might predict based on the hygiene focus of recent months is that any form of messy play will fall to the bottom of parent shopping lists. This would include anything like poop, toys, slime toys, booger toys, all of which had previously been on a huge rise. Azhelle (23:39): While kids may still enjoy these themes, parents are likely going to have a hard time encouraging gross forms of play after coming out of such a hygiene focused pandemic. Number two, our second branch from what will decrease in value electronic toys during the stay at home order. It is safe to predict that parents will look for toys that stimulate their children, be on the capabilities of an electronic toy. As we said before, children are getting tired of screens. They're looking for more than just another app or another video game. And that's where board games and puzzles and arts and crafts are going to come and fill that gap. Now our third branch from what will decrease in value are noisy and over complicated toys and games. Again, with parents at home with their kids 24 seven we can predict that noisy toys are going to fall to the bottom of the charts. Azhelle (24:39): Never all that popular anyway. Noisy toys will definitely now seem even less desirable of an option to keeping kids engaged. Since parents have been trying to balance working at home with caring for their children and noisy toys could have been such a distraction during that time. Additionally, parents are going to be drawn to less complicated toys and games that don't require them to build or guide the play. So I did a little bit of research into this concept and I actually found that in 1948 candy land was a board game that was actually created to occupy and distract hospitalized polio patients. Now, one of the major points that made this game so effective is that it didn't require adult assistance to play the simple game play made it a great game for hospitalized patients and for quarantined kids at home. So assuming parents will be at home with their kids 24 seven and they'd been struggling to find a balance between working at home and managing their kids, we can predict that they will get used to and start expecting simple games to be a part of what they see on shelves. Azhelle (25:52): Games that need little to no adult guidance are going to be at the top of their mind when looking for something to entertain their little ones. Our fourth branch from what will decrease in value is anything in the room decor category. Now this is an interesting thought, but I think on the opposite spectrum of outdoor toys gaining in popularity, I would just predict that after this epidemic there might be a fall in room decor sales and buyer interest. After spending so much time in doors, consumers are naturally going to be just looking to spend their time outside and will lean toward purchasing products, encouraging them to do just that. There is a chance that room decor could actually increase while we're in the midst of the crisis and everyone is at home. But I think the longer we stay in doors and the more that we yearn to go outside, there'll be less and less interest in like refining and working on things for a child's bedroom or decorating lamps and things to decorate that room and everyone's focus is really going to be on things that allow them to feel like they're going outside soon or there or there are still activities they can do out there and less on room decor. Azhelle (27:01): Now our final branch on what will decrease in value is reusable anything. Now, although this is not the most eco-friendly prediction, I bet that even if only initially we see a phenomenon that is just the opposite of go green and more of a go clean campaign. So for reusable toys like play with your food, toys, games with reusable play pieces that are shared with players like the mouthpiece from watching mouth and the glasses from the game. Googly eyes could see a slow in sales. Now during the crisis, parents have been tasked, you know, to keep hard surfaces. Germ-free and surfaces that are meant to be placed in or around children's mouths or eyes are definitely going to be subject to scrutiny. So this would be a great opportunity for inventors to innovate in the one time use category or think about materials that could be used that are affordable enough to replace some of these reusable play pieces from popular toys.Azhelle (28:06): Okay, so finally, if you are following along on our downloadable freebie, you know that we have reached branch number four and this branch focuses on one simple question. Who are the heroes or leaders of this time? Now, if you look at any major event, you'll notice that the toy industry tends to follow the themes of the heroes established during it. World war II led to the development of wartime movies and military toys while post nine 11 the presence of and sales of firefighter theme toys also Rose, so we can predict that with the conclusion of the current world pandemic. Those fighting this fight on the front lines, the paramedics, I get us to care. The nurses by our sides and the doctors offering treatments are the clear heroes of today's crisis. We can expect that healthcare themes and toys will follow with an increased presence on shelf and increased sales. Azhelle (29:08): Now the second hero I have listed are scientists. I know they're kind of in the back of everybody's minds right now, but we could also predict that when a treatment or a vaccine is discovered, this might lead to an attention towards scientists and their career paths. Now again, this is another point supporting the earlier prediction that science, toys and kits would be the next category to rise. Now finally, on our heroes branch, I have a retail and delivery workers. Now these are the cashiers and delivery people. These are the unsung heroes in my opinion, but the retail workers are the ones keeping our big box stores and our grocery stores and drug stores open and in my opinion, really holding the threads of the economy together. Just like the delivery men and women from ups, delivery people to restaurant delivery people. They're all putting themselves out there and at risk to make sure a majority of the country can stay home whenever possible.Azhelle (30:11): And so while I'm doubtful that smaller companies will release, you know, delivery themed roleplay sets, but you might see a lift in the interest of cashier role play toys and who knows, maybe even a Barbie that goes to work delivering packages from a ups truck. We don't know, but we'll see. Okay, so there you have it. That is our COVID 19 market shift mind map. With these four foundational pieces, looking at immediate effects, what will increase in value, what will decrease in value? Who are the heroes of this epidemic? You should be able to analyze and predict the trajectory of certain toy and game categories. Again, if you don't have the freebie, it's going to be really hard for you to picture what I'm talking about. So I'm going to encourage you, go to the toy coach.com forward slash podcast forward slash 11 and you'll be able to download that freebie right away. Azhelle (31:12): So I know that was a lot of information, but I promise you it's all deeply relevant and considerably important given our current situation. Now every industry is going to be affected differently when it comes to the COVID 19 pandemic. But what history has shown us is that in similar times of economic and social change, whether it's a health crisis, a war, or any technological advancement, those that pivot and adjust their businesses to change are the ones who see success. The key is to be prepared and I hope with the information gathered in this episode along with the market shift mind map that you are armed with, you are now a step closer to beginning that preparation. Remember, think of this social isolation or social distancing, not as a moment of confinement, but as a moment of stillness and creativity. A moment to prepare. We have to use this opportunity to invent new things and reinvent old items. 10 years from now, industry experts will be discussing the major products, trends, and of course ideas influenced by this pandemic. What those major ideas will be is up to you. Now, I want to take a moment and personally thank you as always for listening to making it in the toy industry. Before you go, please leave us a review on iTunes or Apple podcasts. It makes a huge difference to the podcast rating and I would love to hear a feedback to help guide future episodes. So until next week, I'll see you later. Toy people. Intro/Outro + Jingle (32:57): Thanks for listening to making it in the toy industry podcast with Azhelle Wade. Head over to the toy coach.com for more information, tips, and advice.
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